2026 and 1914 Parallels

The Southern Punk article’s heading was an obvious click-bait because it read “Are We on the Verge of World War III?”. Set aside the provocative headline, the article itself is quite well-written.

 

The article’s focus is on the eternal starting point for big wars – Europe. Yes, the Ukraine War. Many NATO countries support and supply arms to Ukraine. North Korea sends weapons and troops to fight along with the Russian. This war already has many countries involved, far more than the Iran War.

 

The trigger for this article was an explosive drone that was was found at Leipzig airport in Germany, near Ukrainian cargo planes that support NATO. The obvious suspect is Russia. But here’s the crazy part – the drone is Ukrainian! It is possible (not proven) that it is a Ukrainian drone captured by the Russians who then sent it to Germany. What happens if German investigation concludes that it was sent by the Russians? Would that activate NATO’s “attack on one is an attack on all” clause? Or maybe the Ukrainians have done this so that the blame falls on Russia, just to drag all of NATO into their war? (This isn’t a conspiracy theory, such attacks to blame another country have a long history. There is even a term for such things – “false flag attack”).

 

Might Russia be anticipating just such an activation of NATO (whether or not they are guilty) and decide to take pre-emptive steps? If American stockpiles are indeed as depleted as the rumours from the Iran War suggest, would they refrain from activating NATO? Or maybe the Americans will refuse to help Europe for the lack of support in Iran?

 

What about China? If NATO got dragged deeper into Ukraine, could the Chinese use the fact that their enemies are stuck in wars in Iran and Ukraine and decide this is the best time to take Taiwan?

 

Sound too far-fetched? Hmmm, says the author, look back at the events leading to World War I.

“We were taught that Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated on June 28, 1914, and that his assassination helped lead to World War I.”

What most of us don’t remember is:

“how quickly everything escalated after his death.”

Soon after, Austria-Hungary blamed Serbia for the assassination and declared war. Serbia was backed by Russia; Austria-Hungary by Germany. Once Austria-Hungary declared war, Russia began to mobilize its troops. Since Russia was aligned with France, Germany was concerned of being attacked from both east and west. So it pre-emptively declared war on France, and came through Belgium. This pulled Britain into the war.

“In a very short period of time (5 weeks), a crisis that began between Austria-Hungary and Serbia had expanded to include Germany, Russia, France and Britain.”

 

The parallel to present day, says the author, lies in alliances (like NATO).

“The countries involved had alliances that meant a decision made by one government could suddenly create a problem for another one.”

And viewed through that lens of alliances which can drag countries into wars, one realizes:

“Europe was already a damn mess before Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. These countries already had their sides picked, they had been building up their militaries for years, and nobody really trusted what anybody else was doing. So his assassination didn’t create all of that tension. It happened right in the middle of it.”

It was just the spark; the raw material for the fire was all there and ready.

 

The point is that these things can evolve very rapidly, not that present day is same as 1914 or that another World War is imminent.

“I am not comparing the current situation to 1914 because I believe another world war is inevitable. No. I took us back to 1914 because I wanted to understand, and show you, how a dispute involving Austria-Hungary and Serbia expanded into a much larger war in such a short period of time. It happened in the span of about five weeks.”

 

Or as they, history doesn’t repeat, but it usually rhymes.