Sinophrenia #1: Doomsday Predictions
When it comes to China, few can be rational. After all, China’s data is manipulated (Though by how much, and at what times, is unknown). Its policy makers are notoriously non-transparent. Ideological beliefs muddy the waters: how can communism work? Plus, there is envy. And lastly, fear. One thing though. China-is-doomed theories aren’t new. Such theories have abounded since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping moved China from the Mao’ist (i.e., ideologist) track to the only-results-matter track (“Practice is the sole criteria for truth”). This is famously captured in Deng’s line: “It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” No wonder then that Thomas Orlik’s take on China’s current problems and its track record dealing with its earlier problems going back to 1978 is titled, China: the Bubble that Never Pops . As Orlik says: “To read the history of modern China (i.e., 1978 onwards) is to read the history of China collapse theories” Po...