Computers and Predictions
In his wonderful book on the topic of predictions, The Signal and the Noise , Nate Silver has one chapter on the match between then world champion Garry Kasparov and the computer program Deep Blue. Since it is not practical to analyze every conceivable move to endless depths (even for computers), both humans and computers break down the ultimate objective into shorter term tactics, like winning a pawn here or a piece there. Kasparov tried to exploit that tendency by “baiting it into mindlessly pursuing plans that did not improve its strategic position”: “A classic example of the computer’s biases is its willingness to accept sacrifices (trade a better piece for a weaker one).” In the first game, Deep Blue took the bait via just such a sacrifice. While neither Kasparov nor the computer could calculate all the moves from there onwards, Kasparov knew from experience that, in such positions, “with such pressure the odds are heavily in his favor”. Kasparov was right: he went on t...