Realignments

The Russia-Ukraine war has probably created a “major shift in the world order”, writes Amit Kumar. On the one hand, the US and Europe have moved closer to each other.

 

On the other side, how close have Russia and China moved to each other? This is a particularly worrying question for India, he writes, because “one of India’s historically most trusted partners now possibly shares an indispensable friendship with India’s primary adversary”.

 

Russia and China have several points of convergence:

“The first point of convergence between China and Russia emanates from their shared antipathy for the US-dominated economic order and financial system. Both countries have been subject to a range of Western economic sanctions and export restrictions.”

 

Russia as the oil source addresses another critical fear of China. Oil from the Middle East has to go through the Indian Ocean, a route which can be blocked (in times of war). Conversely, China as the new consumer of Russian oil helps Russia negate the loss of the EU as oil buyer.

 

Most Russians today view China quite favourably. The Chinese man on the street is also favourable, though not so whole-heartedly:

“Even though they (Chinese people) admit that Russia could pose a threat to China, they are convinced that the West is the primary enemy.”

Of course, no two countries can ever have a perfect alignment of interests. While both want to change global and financial governance systems (read US/West dominated), China can afford to be far more patient while Russia needs those changes to happen a lot faster. China’s increasing economic influence in Central Asia is not something Russia welcomes – it is Russia’s “strategic backyard”. Lastly, the Russian deal with North Korea is not exactly in China’s interest.

 

But none of the above outweigh the growing convergence between the two. And with Russia being locked out of Western markets, it has started to integrate deeply with China’s economy.

 

From India’s point, the fear is whether Russia is becoming the “junior partner of China”? Then again, Russia wouldn’t want to play second fiddle. So they do not want a new US-China bipolar world. Instead they want a multipolar world, where they don’t have to agree with China on everything. From those perspectives, Russia would want other power centers like India to grow.

 

All in all, it is hard to say. One can only wait and watch.