Nuclear Weapon Policies

Why has India adopted a no-first-use policy wrt its nuclear weapons? Shivshankar Menon looks into the reasons in his book, Choices. (Incidentally, India’s assurance that it won’t use or threaten others by its nuclear weapons is limited to (1) non-nuclear weapon countries, and (2) countries not aligned to nuclear powers).

 

Consider the alternative, he says: a declared first-use-if-needed policy. It’s what the US, Russia, and Pakistan have. America has it because that’s the only way to guarantee the security umbrella it provides to Japan, South Korea and much of western Europe. But once the US takes that policy, USSR/Russia has no choice but to adopt the same policy. Pakistan has it because of their paranoia of India and their weakness in conventional military strength.

 

Menon points out that the alternative, first-use-if-needed policy, is destabilizing by definition. It sets off guessing games as to when such a country might fire its nukes, what they might consider as sufficient grounds. Some of those guesses would inevitably be wrong, and a dangerous cycle of what-if gets set off.

 

India’s choice, says Menon, is also influenced by the declared Chinese doctrine, which is very close to India’s, though not as explicit about no-first-use. In turn, China doesn’t see any point of threatening first use against anyone because (1) it is heavily outnumbered by American nukes, and (2) its conventional military strength is far greater than India’s.

 

Both India and China have some things in common: neither is rich yet, both have excellent growth prospects, and thus neither wants to get side-lined from their bigger goal (to get rich, to have greater influence). Wars are costly, hit economic growth, and add the problem of external actors getting involved (if, say, as a result of a war, American troops are allowed in India; or Chinese troops end up in Sri Lanka). And so, for now, Menon says, both India and China focus on the ability to survive and launch a devastating counter-strike if nukes are used against them (by Pakistan and US respectively). For now, neither views the other as the country that will launch nukes against them. For now, both view their nukes as a deterrent only.

 

As Menon says throughout his book, foreign policy is a dynamic, evolving topic. Nothing is permanent.