Russia via the "Geographical Disadvantage" Lens

You’d think that ever since the aeroplane was invented, geography would matter less and less when it comes to the course of nations. But you’d be wrong, writes Tim Marshall in his aptly titled terrific book, Prisoners of Geography.

Take Russia, a country with a huge “geographical disadvantage”:

“Russia is vast. It is vastest. Immense. It is six million square miles vast; eleven time zones vast.”

From a Russian perspective, its sheer size acts as a barrier to conquest. From its western border to Moscow is such a long distance that any advancing army would need “unsustainably long supply lines”. The same holds for any attack from the eastern side. Wait a minute, you say, who’s going to attack Russia? But the right question is how Russia views things:

“By 2004… every former Warsaw Pact state bar Russia was in NATO or the European Union.”

Putin sees NATO right at his door step, and it makes him very nervous.

Being such a vast country inevitably has meant most of the Russian Federation outside the core area is ethnically not Russian and “pays little allegiance to Moscow”. That in turn leads to a vicious cycle of aggressive security systems leading to even more resentment in those areas.

I’ve known that countries with no sea access are almost always poor. Not a problem for Russia, right? Unfortunately, it’s no good if the sea is frozen!

“(Russia doesn’t have) a warm-water port where the water doesn’t freeze in winter, with free access to the world’s major trading routes.”

This has two consequences:

“This does not just halt the flow of trade; it prevents the Russian fleet from operating as a global power.”

This explains Russia’s actions in Ukraine starting 2013. When Ukraine started showing signs of cozying up with the EU, Putin had to step in: Russia could not afford to lose access to Ukraine and thereby the only warm-water port the Russians had access to.

“For Russia this was an existential matter: they could not cope with losing Crimea, the West could.”

And yet, despite all its military power, and much of its area being in Asia:

“Russia is not an Asian power for many reasons.”

1. Siberia, though mineral and oil rich, is practically uninhabitable.
2. Only 22% of its citizens live in Asia. That in turn means there are only two railway networks running east to west. Also, there are very few transport routes running north to south. All of this means there is “no easy way for Russia to project power southward into modern Mongolia or China: it lacks the manpower and supply lines to do so”.

Geography still matters.