Coronavirus: Death Rates


What fraction of infected people are dying of coronavirus? Some sites and reports are using this formula:
 
That formula comes up with low ratios. Unfortunately, it is wrong. Why? Because most cases are still ongoing/active/open and they could end either way: in recovery, or in death. The right formula to use is:
By that second formula, the death rate globally is 19% . That means 19% of infected people died. It does not mean 19% of people in the world have died.

With me so far? So far it was just logical thinking, but now it gets messy across different countries. The death rate in UK today is a staggering 93%, while Germany is at just 4.6%. How can there be such a huge difference in death rates across rich Western countries? Are Germans that much healthier than the Brits? Are healthcare systems that different in the two countries?  Nope, the answer lies elsewhere, as this article says:
“If a country carries out more tests, and also identifies people with mild forms of the disease, their figure will be much lower.”
Germany is a country that did lots of tests:
“Germany's low case fatality rate is therefore partly caused by the fact it has tested more people and, as a result, has identified more mild instances of the disease.”
Whereas:
“In comparison, in the UK, only people who need medical assistance are being tested and as a result the UK's case fatality rate is much higher.”
Got it? Countries that test a lot find many cases, most of which are mild and so their death rates are lower. While countries that test only those who are very ill identify only the severe cases, for which the death rate is higher.

As I’ve done in all my recent blogs, let’s get to India now. Specifically, India’s death rates in comparison to other countries at the same point of time, i.e., the period corresponding to India’s present day (Day 31):

India (2nd bar from the left) comes out quite favorably in the mix. Wondering if this is just a statistical quirk at Day 31? How does India fare through the entire Day 1 to Day 31 period?
Pleasant surprise, right? India (grey line) has been on the lower side than most countries for much of the first 31 day period. That’s even more surprising since India has taken the same approach as the UK, not Germany. We didn’t do random tests, and hence didn’t register mild cases. We only register the cases where medical assistance is needed, the more severe ones. And yet our death rate is on the lower side…

So the next time you see the headline of “so many deaths yesterday”, take a deep breath and then check out the number of recoveries as well. We are doing better than many, but as China and South Korea have shown, we could do even better.

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