Is the EU Unravelling?

In Prisoners of Geography, Tim Marshall, says that post World War II, the “acceptance of the presence on European lands of a single overwhelming power, the USA” led to the birth of NATO and paved the way for the creation of the EU:

“What is now the EU was setup so that France and Germany could hug each other so tightly that neither could get an arm free with which to punch the other.”

The EU went on to expand to include more and more countries to become what it is today. It even created a common currency, the Euro:

“They were all supposed to have levels of debt, unemployment and inflation within certain limits.”

But the difference in wealth across nations meant an economic union was going to be a problem. Some like the Greeks were just “cooking the books”:

“But because the euro is not just a currency – it is also an ideology – the members turned a blind eye.”

Until the 2008 financial crisis, that is. Germans were up in arms when they found themselves having to bail out Greece, as Marshall explains tongue-in-cheek:

“It didn’t take long for people in Germany to point out that they were working until sixty-five but paying taxes which were going to Greece so that people could retire at fifty-five. They then asked – why? And the answer, “in sickness and in health”, was unsatisfactory.”

Ironically, the strengths of the EU (common markets, ease of movement of goods and people, a Germany that was no longer a military threat), led to other unexpected consequences, writes Yuval Noah Harari in 21 Lessons for the 21^st Century:

“The idea of establishing an independent Scotland or Catalonia looks more attractive when you don’t have to fear a German invasion and when you can count on a common European front against global warming and global corporations.”

The Brexit vote was the next “psychological blow to the European dream”, wrote Marshall. And the US + EU misadventures in the Middle East and Libya are now straining the EU to the hilt, says Harari:

“The European Union was built on the promise to transcend the cultural differences between French, Germans, Spanish and Greeks. It might collapse due to its inability to contain the cultural differences between Europeans and migrants from Africa and the Middle East.”

Most nations can (reluctantly) admit refugees coming from neighbouring countries. But the EU is not a nation. Ergo, the Germans don’t see why they need to take in far off Libyan refugees landing in Italy. The Swedes ask why they need to take in any even-more-farther Syrian refugees.

Why is Germany so determined to keep the EU together? Here’s Marshall’s take:

“Germans know instinctively that if the Union fragments, the old fear of Germany will reappear, especially as it is now by far the most populous and wealthy European nation… A failed Union would also hurt Germany economically.”

And an isolationist US under Trump is only adding to the problems of the EU. As Trump demands the Europeans contribute more to NATO, and pulls the US out of more and more areas, the Germans face two bad choices: strengthen their military and send alarm bells ringing in Europe, or get closer to Russia, a country they rely for their oil and gas anyway.

Will the unravelling of the EU lead to the re-creation of a Europe that is just waiting for a spark to explode… yet again? Germany’s ex-Chancellor, Helmut Kohl, warned of exactly this in a 2012 article, before Brexit and before the Libyan/Syrian immigrant crisis:

“For those who… are asking what benefits Europe’s unity brings, the answer despite the unprecedented European period of peace lasting more than 65 years and despite the problems and difficulties we must still overcome is: peace.”