Randomized Selection

Recently I read a couple of articles from two different parts of the world – India and the UK – that recommended randomizing selections in various fields. Our instinctive reaction to such a suggestion is negative, as Tim Harford wrote:

“We do not usually draw lots to allocate duties, jobs or privileges.”

 

I want to state at the outset that both articles are not saying that selections (for whatever field) should be entirely random. Rather, they mean set a minimum criteria or qualification that needs to be met. Then, from amongst the shortlisted entries, select at random – not by ranking them as 1st, 2nd and so on.

 

University grants, says Harford, could be given at random (provided the applications meet the minimum criteria). After all, he argues, sometimes a thorough evaluation of each application (to decide on merit) can end up costing a significant chunk of the grant amount itself! In any case, he says, the assumption that experts know best (and can rank ideas and proposals the “right” way) has proven incorrect in so many fields.

 

The other article was by Praveen Chakravarty who pointed out that:

“Three-quarters of all senior professional positions in India are taken up by people from the ‘forward castes’ who constitute only one-fifth of the population.”

Stats like this are true generation after generation. Which raises the question:

“How is it that society’s outcomes are skewed so inordinately?”

In India, the reasons are obvious – access to schools, quality of schools, affordability and access to coaching classes. Other factors like discrimination on various fronts add to the problem.

 

In Holland, writes Chakravarty, they tried randomization for medical schools:

“Applicants with some basic minimum qualifications were entered into an admissions lottery and picked randomly. The students selected through this process were given admission and the rest rejected.”

 

Does India need randomization on similar lines, he asks. Is that the only way to break the who can become well off cycle? On that front, China has tried something different – like all Asian societies, Chinese parents will do everything to give their children an edge. To level the field and give everyone in the next generation a chance at rising economically, China therefore banned all coaching classes. After all, the coaching class system gives the middle class and above a huge advantage at the time of college applications.

 

I can see the intent of China’s move. But as a parent, I would like to give my child any advantage possible (including coaching classes). As always, there are no easy answers to any of the hard questions.

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