Thoughts on Taiwan

The visit to Taiwan by the American Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has resulted in an (I loved this phrase from the Financial Express) “overdrive of fire and brimstone” from China. That China considers Taiwan a breakaway province is well known. That the US considers Taiwan a quasi-independent entity that should not be forcibly occupied by China is equally well known. What then was the purpose of Pelosi’s visit?

 

That’s a question for which I’ve not heard any clear answer. When China protested and ranted as Pelosi’s visit approached, did the US find itself in a position where to back down from the visit would mean a loss of face, a signal to China of change in the power equation? Was the US forced to go through with the visit then?

 

But once Pelosi landed and left, the Chinese government found itself in a problem – it left them red-faced that she’d ignored their protests. Worse, so did a lot of Chinese citizens, who poured scorn on their country’s leadership for doing nothing other than using mere words. Did that force a humiliated China to do something (aka fire missiles over Taiwan, send in military jets and warships closer to Taiwan than before)?

 

And as those Chinese “military exercises” extended on and on, did it in turn force the US to send its warships through those waters as a sign that they would intervene should the Chinese actually attack Taiwan?

 

Have these exercises now wetted the expectation among Chinese that the day they take back Taiwan is not too far away? How safe does Taiwan feel now? Since Taiwan manufactures a huge chunk of the world’s semiconductors, how catastrophic will any blockade of Taiwan by China turn out in future for the world at large?

 

Outside of the military steps, China also withdrew from joint steps planned with the US on the environment. Is that just posturing, a short-term step to mollify the baying-for-action Chinese public?

 

To summarize, did the US miscalculate the anger and thus the response from the Chinese? Or were they deliberately sending a message to China that, while it may be rising, it is nowhere near ready for war with the US?

 

A loss of face can lead to many irrational responses. History has shown this many, many times. So what exactly was the purpose of Pelosi’s visit? At a time when the US is practically at war with Russia over Ukraine? To open a second front of war? To show the world that the US can take on Russia and China simultaneously? And here we used to think that Trump was dangerous…