Experts and Brexit

Was the Brexit vote the “wrong” choice? The experts certainly think so; but then again, did the experts see the financial crisis of 2008 coming? If they couldn’t see the greatest financial catastrophe since the Great Depression, should we really believe their doomsday predictions now?

In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman said that the reason experts fail may not be arrogance. Rather:
“The reason is that the person who acquires more knowledge develops an enhanced illusion of her skill and becomes unrealistically overconfident.”
Overconfident and arrogance: it’s a critical difference. Arrogance is without basis; overconfidence is a problem of degree.

Note how this rules out the seemingly obvious solution of calling oneself useless. If you consider yourself terrible, would you have any confidence in your forecasts?! In fact, as Philip Tetlock wrote in Superforecasting, what we need is a different kind of humility:
“The humility required for good judgment is not self-doubt – the sense that you are untalented, unintelligent, or unworthy. It is intellectual humility. It is a recognition that reality is profoundly complex, that seeing things clearly is a constant struggle, when it can be done at all, and that human judgment must therefore be riddled with mistakes.”

Tetlock recommends breaking down the topic of forecast into sub-parts; then identifying the knowable and unknowable parts. Look for past data on similar activities. Be willing to adjust your forecast as things evolve. But don’t overreact or underreact to every new piece of information. Consider the counterarguments to your prediction honestly.

Sound difficult? Of course, it is. Nobody is right all the time, not even the best predictors. Not even close. And the most important point Tetlock brought out: know which topics are so damned complex that it’s not even worth attempting to predict them!

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