Border Flashpoints

The standoff between the Indian and Chinese armies over disputes over territory, which in turn led to the killing of 20 Indian soldiers is obviously a charged and emotive issue. The good news is that neither government is the least bit interested in all out war since they both subscribe to this line attributed to the Chinese leader from a generation back, Deng Xiaoping:

“To get rich is glorious.”

Economic growth and prosperity is paramount to both sides. Plus, of course, if China gets too beligerent, they risk India falling into America’s arms and the Chinese absolutely do not want the US on yet another one of their borders.

So no, I don’t think there is any risk of a war here. That said, it is also clear that this won’t be the last standoff between the two countries. Simply because the border is too long and there are far too many stretches that are disputed by one or both sides: it’s not just Arunachal and Kashmir, there are plenty of areas in between that are disputed too, sometimes in their entirety, but more often over the specifics of where exactly the border lies.

But all that’s been true since the time India got independence. So why are such incidents spiking more in recent years? It’s got to do with both countries becoming richer. As they get richer, both of them have more money to build infrastructure everywhere, including near the problematic border areas. Yes, some of that infrastructure is obviously military in nature, while other stuff like all those roads both sides build looks suspicious to the other side: is that roadway just good old infrastructure? Or is it being built to allow the respective armies to move and be supplied easily?

Then there’s the North East. Historically an ignored part of India, the Indian government finds that with a growing economy (before COVID-19), it has the money to connect those areas better. With connectivity, their prosperity would increase and hopefully their separatist tendencies would reduce. As lastly, a more prosperous North East would increase India’s market size. But that’s not how China views India’s actions in the North East, obviously.

Both countries have legitimate as well as aggressive reasons for their actions, and some actions are dual-purpose by definition. The whole situation is tailor made for misunderstanding, suspicion, incorrect interpretations and perceived-to-be-provocative moves by both sides. All of which is why I don’t think such flare-ups are going away anytime soon.

The only way forward is to continue those Modi – Xi talks regularly. Would they eliminate such incidents altogether? Obviously not. But those talks would help avoid some incidents some of the time. It requires a mature mindset on both sides, and given that both sides are non-suicidal by nature, I am not too pessimistic of what lies ahead.