Another Lockdown, What Next?


We now have a city specific lockdown in Bangalore. This is why that happened, the daily case count has been spiking sharply for some time now:
At an all-India level too, the daily case count has been rising:

So what is causing the spike? Is it because people started taking it easy? Is it because the lockdown had worked but (obviously) cannot be continued indefinitely? Or did the easing of inter-state travel mean it was no longer contained to the worst-hit states only? All of them are possible reasons, and they have all probably contributed in different amounts.

While India is now 3rd on the case count list globally, it’s still very low on the fraction of population that has been infected. For every million citizens, 616 citizens have been infected in India. For the US, that number is 10,126. Brazil is at 8,658; Sweden at 7,415; UK at 4,256; Italy at 4,016; Germany at 2,385… you get the drift. Does this mean things are going to get a whole lot worse in India? Or does it mean we’ve been dealing with it a whole lot better?

Or is it about luck? This study shows the share of two different strains of the virus in Asia and Europe (Green = less infectious; Orange = more infectious):
Compared to Asian countries, we have far more of the infectious variety, but it’s still far less than the West. Does that mean we’ll end up much worse than Asia but much better than the West?

Who can really tell anything about this epidemic?

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