Cards Close to the Chest

As the cash crunch in ATM’s and banks continued, Modi’s reasons for demonetization kept changing. Initially, it was about black money; then about counterfeiting; and then it was about going cashless. Did it sound like he was cooking up a new reason each time?

Or take the (alleged) Russian hacking of the recent US Presidential election. Did Putin & Co do that to help Trump win? Or did they do it as revenge against Hillary who, in 2011, accused Putin of rigging the Russian election? The US media finds a new reason each time…

Or how about Nitish Kumar’s support for demonetization? Did he genuinely mean it? Or was it a signal to the electorate that he too is against corruption? Or was it a signal to the BJP that he is not averse to joining forces with them, if mutually acceptable terms are worked out?

We tend to believe that politicians can’t have multiple reasons for their policies, actions and statements. What if that were not true, at least for the ones at or near the top? What if the answer to the questions above on the reasons for Modi, Putin and Nitish’s actions were “All of the above”?

But, you say, if that were the case, why don’t they give all their reasons upfront? Why cite a new one periodically?

Perhaps Daniel Kahneman has the answer to that, though he was talking of organizations and their reluctance to “implementing programs that would improve the rationality of their decisions”:
“Well because it creates difficulty for the leadership. The moment you have a system that is a more structured system – then that system can be used to second guess the decisions of people. And people don’t like to be second guessed. So there is a lot of interest in ways to improve rationality but … when it comes to implementation enthusiasm wanes distinctly. … because you are naked and this is a real problem.”

If you show the people all your cards, they will find reasons to critique your choices. To paraphrase that old saying, it’s better to hide your reasons and let people wonder what your motives are than to cite them all and let them butcher your choice, point by point…

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