The Problem of Afghanistan

As the Taliban has become the de facto rulers of Afghanistan, most countries are not sure what is the “right” course of action. Recognize it officially, and hope to have some form of communication channels and influence? Refuse to recognize it, but that didn’t prevent the Kandahar hijacking and prisoners-for-hostages swap, or the planes from flying into the Twin Towers, did it?

 

C. Raja Mohan states a reality of life when he says:

“That victories on the battlefield have political consequences is one of the fundamental features of international politics. Governments have no option but to come to terms, now or later, with the victor.”

 

He cites the speed at which UN resolutions are changing their wording as examples of this reality. A la when Napoleon escaped from Elba and marched towards Paris in 1815, this is a rough translation of the progression in the headlines of the age:

“Here is a rough sense and sequence of the headlines: “The Cannibal has left his den”. “The Monster has landed”, “The Tyrant has passed through Lyon”; “The Usurper is 60 leagues from Paris”; “Bonaparte is advancing, but will never enter Paris”; “Napoleon will be below our ramparts tomorrow”; “The Emperor has arrived at Fontainebleau”; “His Imperial Majesty is in the Royal Palace”.

 

The other eternal truth of international relations is:

“There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”

He cites rumours that the US is providing the Taliban with info on the ISIS presence in their territories! Joe Biden was very blunt on this topic:

“It’s not a matter of trust — it’s a matter of mutual self-interest.”

The self-interests align only until the last American troops leave. But after that? Will the US decide to let rival groups like ISIS and the Taliban fight it out, leaving both groups with lesser time, energy and money to direct at the West?

 

The Taliban too is wary of being an international pariah, like last time. Is that why they make the right noises of wanting to have a relationship with India? But can India trust them? Even more problematically, is the Taliban truly independent or will Pakistan dictate its policy towards India in particular? Then again, not all terror groups have the same agenda, priorities or targets.

 

How about China? They’d want their mines and mineral rights to remain functional with the new regime. Does that force them to recognize the Taliban? But given Taliban’s religion-by-definition ideology, is there a risk that increasing Chinese presence, physical or otherwise, will add the treatment of Muslims in China’s Xinjiang province to the list of Taliban’s grievances?

 

No wonder the new regime in Afghanistan is such a nightmarish problem for all countries.