Data and Feelings

In 1954, Darrell Huff published How to Lie with Statistics. In his book on how to use, question, and understand statistical data, How to Make the World Add Up, Tim Harford agrees that Huff’s “book deserves the popularity, and the praise”, but fears Huff’s influence on people’s view of statistics may have gone too far, that Huff “made statistics seem like a stage magician’s trick”.

 

Today, of course, we have another problem when we encounter any stats:

“It’s not that we feel every statistic is a lie, but that we feel helpless to pick out the truths. So we believe whatever we want to believe…”

Harford’s book is on how we should learn to read statistical data. No, not in a dry academic way, but in ways that are very relevant to real life.

 

The first rule he suggests is amusing until you think a bit: When you see a stat, ask yourself how it makes you feel. Happy? Angry? Vindicated? Any strong emotion should be taken as a warning sign that you should look more closely at the data. Aha, now the rule begins to make sense, doesn’t it?

 

Unfortunately, we aren’t rational creatures. Even if we look closely at the data, that isn’t enough. Counterintuitively:

“The more details people were presented – graphs, research methods, commentary… - the easier they found it disbelieve unwelcome evidence. If doubt is the weapon, detail is the ammunition.”

Why on earth would that be the case? Because:

“More details will often give us more opportunity to find holes in the argument.”

On the other hand, if you already approve a theory, more detail helps you latch onto it even more strongly. Here’s why:

“More detail means more toeholds on to which that belief can cling.”

Combine those two reactions and we have a tragic situation:

“Presenting people with a detailed and balanced account of both sides of the argument may actually push people away from the center rather than pull them in.”

 

If that sounded very depressing, well, perhaps the message is for us to be aware of these tendencies in ourselves and to consciously look out for our biases. It’s a start anyway… Harford never heard the journey was going to be easy.