Epidemic Yoyo

China and Italy. Opposite sides to the handling of the Coronavirus. The former appears to be the role-model-if-not-for-this-annoying-thing-called-freedom, while the latter is the origin of the meme “Let’s not be Italy”.

Then there’s the UK, writes Santosh Desai. Crudely put, their approach sounds like this: Few people will die. The rest will recover. Just let it play out without any extreme measures. That sounds heartless, so what’s the though process?

“The logic employed is that in any case, in will be impossible to prevent this from happening regardless of what actions are taken today. Strict lockdowns might work temporarily but as soon as these are relaxed, the coronavirus is likely to make a strong comeback, the argument goes. Once a majority of the population gets infected and thus becomes immune to the disease, then the virus loses its contagiousness and could get permanently controlled.”

Or is the UK approach about sheer pragmatism, writes Tyler Cowen:

“For how long can we tolerate the bankruptcies, the unemployment, and the cabin fever?  At what point do the small businesspeople, one way or another, violate the orders and resume some form of commercial activity?”

And isn’t “mitigation fatigue” inevitable anyway? Won’t people get tired of such restrictions and abandon them at some point? At which point, would the epidemic come roaring back?

Then again, we’re human. Yes, even the stiff upper lipped British:

“Even if that were the very best policy on utilitarian grounds, it might not be time consistent.  Once the hospitals start looking like Lombardy, we don’t say “tough tiddlywinks, hail Jeremy Bentham!”  Instead we crumble like the complacent softies you always knew we were.  We institute quarantines and social distancing and shutdowns and end up with the worst of both worlds.”

Cowen makes a valid point, not just about the UK, but the world:

“I fear we might switch course and, again, end up with the worst of both worlds. We would take a big hit to gdp but not really stop the spread of the virus.”

Are we doomed to oscillate then? Or to use the new phrase in vogue these days, be the “epidemic yoyo”?

“I also can imagine that we keep switching back and forth. The epidemic yoyo. Because in fact we find none of the scenarios tolerable.”

Cowen says any policy approach needs to try to factor in for the violent swings of the epidemic yoyo… After all, and you can’t take the irrational human out of the equation. Unless you’re China.