Coronavirus: Do Lockdowns Work?

In my last blog, I asked if we should look East, i.e., at how China, Japan and South Korea are dealing with coronavirus. Since those countries got hit first (whereas Europe and the US got hit later), there’s data for a far longer period from the 3 Asian countries compared to the West. To adjust for that, I’ve taken the total cases count for the first 43 days in each country (that corresponds to present day for most of the West).

First up, China and South Korea:

Don’t worry about the exact numbers. Look only at the shape of the curve for both countries: a slow rise (few new cases per day), that changes to a steep rise (lots of new cases per day), and by Day 25 or so, both countries managed to flatten the curve (back to few new cases per day). In other words, Day 25 corresponds to the time when the effects of their lockdowns began to show up.

Next, look at Europe and the US for the same period (first 43 days):

The curve starts picking up much later (there’s the gestation period after the first “imported” cases). Then it shoots up steeply (lots of new cases each day). And even now, there is no sign of flattening the curve (an indicator that the new cases per day is reducing).

The contrast? China and South Korea began to stem the bleeding by Day 25 whereas the West is having no luck even at Day 43.

Since India is still at Day 28, and graphs drawn to different scales are hard to compare, here are two graphs of India with the Western countries, all drawn till Day 28 (present day for India):

In the graph above, the one on the left, one can barely see the India line (yellow). That’s because Italy (orange) is so high it drowns everything else. So I removed Italy and retained the other Western countries (right side graph above). See how low India (yellow) is? Even better, India’s line isn’t showing signs of going on a steep uptick even now. A steep upward movement of the curve would mean we’re in Stage 3. The current slope of India’s curve says we’re still in Stage 2.

Does this mean the lockdown is working? Unlike the Western countries, India hasn’t attained the steep curve yet for the same time period. And if the lockdown is working, it’s good it’ll stay for another 2 weeks, no matter what the inconvenience.

Or is this comparison irrelevant? After all, the West is rich, has a healthcare system that works (ok, let’s change that to “works far better than India”), and people would go to a hospital far more easily than in India. So I drew up countries like India: Brazil and UK. I included UK not because it’s poor like us, but because they started with a policy of actively discouraging folks from coming to the hospitals unless they were in very bad shape. That sounds like how the Indian system works, so I felt including UK was apples to apples.

Notice how both UK (blue) and Brazil (grey) are in steep rise at Day 28 (present day for India)? Whereas India (yellow) is only rising steadily, not exponentially (Stage 3)? That leads me to feel the lockdown is what is keeping us in Stage 2.

Only now, after so long, are China and South Korea resuming normal life, and even then very slowly. Given they’re the only ones (along with Japan) who seem to get this under control, and seeing how long they kept the lockdowns, does that mean India should extend the lockdown too, for as long as the Chinese and Koreans have done? It’s not a pleasant thought, but the alternative seems to have an out of control disease like the West faces.

But extending the lockdown means the government needs to ensure essentials are available, mechanisms to make them available improve significantly, and the money flow to the poor keep happening during this period. A tough ask indeed, but since we seem to have chosen the right course (lockdown), it’s key that we now stay the course.