New Beginning or Temporary Upswing?

In recent months, the aura of invincibility around Modi and the BJP seems to be wearing off. As Santosh Desai writes, there are signs of jitteriness in the BJP about the elections in Gujarat, the “effects of demonetisation continue to reverberate through the economy”, GST implementation is having its share of issues, and the “cultural agenda too ends up with too many unhinged statements”. And in this backdrop:

“Being on the back foot does not come naturally to Mr Modi and his reactions lack the surefootedness of an earlier time.”

So who could rise now in the Opposition? Nitish went to the NDA, the Yadavs are barely standing, and Mamata never grew beyond Bengal, writes Chetan Bhagat. No wonder then that Rahul Gandhi seems to be on the rise, at least on the Net:

“There seems to be a new zing in his tweets and statements about the government, particularly PM Modi. It is like someone took boiled daal and gave it a tadka. His lines are spicier (or more entertaining), which in turn makes them more viral.”

His visits to NRI events in the US didn’t have his usual share of gaffes either.

Yet neither Desai nor Bhagat feels this marks the turning point in the Congress’ future. Says Desai:

“Nobody is clamouring for the Congress to return, nor for Rahul Gandhi to lead this country. For most people who oppose this government, the Congress is at best a bitter pill that one will need to summon up resolve to swallow.”

And as Bhagat points out:

“The point to note is that even if many Indians are unhappy with these policies (demonetization and GST), few doubt the positive intentions behind them.”

A lot of work needs to be done from here on if the Congress/Rahul are to become serious contenders in 2019. As Desai says:

“Unless there is more ground level movement in this area, the effect will be superficial. More importantly, the party needs to build an emotionally resonant narrative, that goes beyond individual failures of the ruling party.”

All of which is why I wrap up with these lines from Bhagat:

“Modi is seen as a doer and perceived to be more in sync with the average Indian. Rahul is seen as a symbol of dynastic politics… He will have to convince India about what he plans to do differently from Modi, and how it will be better for India. Spicy tweets are a good snack to begin with, but eventually people will want a more substantial main course.”