Good Sign for the Future?

As the results of the state elections came out on Saturday, the one that garnered all the attention was UP. Obviously. How could a state considered impossibly complicated with its castes, sub-castes and religious divide yield such a landslide outcome to any one side? And yet, Amit Shah has done his magic twice, during the Lok Sabha elections and now.

Amazingly, the BJP did not field a single Muslim candidate in UP! So was this a “majority vote against a minority veto”? Has the Modi-Shah combo nailed the numbers perfectly to become the “Hindu mascot” without “running after the minority votes”? Is the Muslim vote bank on whom all of the opposition relies no longer sufficient to win? Has “sickularism” finally gone so far that the majority has begun to assert itself? Or is it also because Modi, the orator, promises growth, progress and jobs while the opposition only plays to the fear of the minorities without offering anything positive for anyone?

If this is a trend that is here to stay for some time, then the minority vote cannot win the election in the near term. If so, the reasoning would start among many parties as to why they shouldn’t align with the NDA? After all, if the minorities aren’t going to win them the election, what’s the point of saying Never to the “communal” beast? In fact, has that mindset change already started? I can’t imagine the BJP cobbling a post-election alliance to get to power ever before. But now, they did just that in 2 states: Goa and Manipur.

If a critical mass of this mindset and such alliances is achieved, then the pariah status of the BJP would dissolve away. As of today, here is how the party-in-power map of India looks like:

This maps shows the problem for the opposition: sure, there are many states without the BJP. Sure, the South is still not even likely to become BJP territory (except Karnataka). But there is no single alternative party around which the rest can cluster in 2019. Perhaps that is why Omar Abdullah tweeted:

“In a nutshell there is no leader today with a pan India acceptability who can take on Modi & the BJP in 2019.”

And:

“At this rate we might as well forget 2019 & start planning/hoping for 2024.”

The opposition had promised to make demonetization an issue; it didn’t make any difference (It’s hard to imagine that DeMo was an issue in Punjab alone but nowhere else). If so, I am glad because it means:

-         Most people are willing to bear the pain of DeMo;

-         They have hope and faith in the ultimate intent of DeMo;

-         They have the patience to wait and check;

-         And best of all, it would allow Modi to take other hard, difficult and what should sound like unpopular choices in future.

But everything I said is about the Center. At the state level though, the BJP can and will lose some states. After all, Nitish did stop them in Bihar. Then again, Nitish stood for something positive, unlike the rest who believe “secular” is the magic word to win elections. So if all this leads to the rise of state leaders who try to do positive things rather than just scaremonger about “communalism”, it would still be a good outcome for the country.