What Next in Iran?

I was hesitant to write on the Iran-Israel war because everything would change dramatically if the US entered the arena. And who knew whether and when the US might join the war? Now with Trump announcing a 2 week period after which he will decide, it might be “safe” to write one… (Of course, as Iran rightly fears, the US may be lying about that to lull Iran into a bit of relative security, but I’ll ignore that possibility and write this anyway).

 

Personally, I don’t think Trump greenlighted Israel’s attack for a couple of reasons. First, if this was part of the US plan, why the 2 week wait period? They’d have had a plan ready. Second, the US would have lined up its ducks, By that, I mean their intelligence agency would have said (lied?) that Iran was close to having a nuke, whereas their spy chief, Tulsi Gabbard said the opposite. Yes, Trump said she was wrong but that just supports my point – you wouldn’t have these kinds of contradictory statements if the Israeli attack was part of an American plan. Third, we wouldn’t be seeing open opposition within Trump’s party to entering yet another “never ending war”. Fourth, entering a war doesn’t align with one of Trump’s few core values, i.e., not getting America involved (militarily and in expenses) in other people’s conflicts.

 

Trump, in fact, wants to be seen as a peace-maker. If anything, he may be more interested now in forcing Iran into a deal with the US, at a time when they have been hit and seriously weakened by Israeli attacks. You can easily see him positioning himself as the voice of reason, of peace, of a deal with Iran.

~~

 

Israel, meanwhile, for all its might and guile, cannot destroy Iran’s most secure uranium enrichment center at Fordow, built into a mountain with 100 meters of rock above it. In theory, the US could do that if it drops its GBU-57 (13,000 kgs) bomb. Which is why one sees billboards like this in Israel (I kid you not):

I am surprised by this. Trump will not want to be seen as a puppet of anyone, let alone a bunch of foreigners! What are the Israelis thinking? That America will be sucked into a “never ending war” yet again, not because of their own stupidity/ greed/ lies/ incorrect intelligence, but because Israel wanted them to?

~~

 

Assuming the US does decide to invade, the details of Iran become critical. First, it is huge, compared to both the countries the US invaded in recent times – Iraq and Afghanistan. If the US couldn’t control either of those, can they ever hope to control Iran? Second, Iran is buffeted by mountains and deserts on all sides. This means the difficulty of moving troops and supply lines across different parts of the country will be immense, if not impossible. 

Third, this very terrain (mountains and deserts) has meant that historically, Iran (and Persia) has had different sets of people in different parts with distinct sets of identities separated from each other, not able to mix easily, and thus not really feeling “united”. If the US invades and topples the regime, there is no way to know what can follow – will the country fracture based on identities (Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis)? Will that be a good or bad thing for its neighbours? What kind of domino effect of consequences will hit the neighbourhood?

 

Fourth, the straits of Hormuz. So much of the world’s oil flows through it and if the Iranians see they will fall, what do they have to lose? What if they decide to cause as much damage as possible on their way out by mining the straits and blocking all oil flow for a very long time to come? A global recession is guaranteed, and the consequences will hit America as well.

~~

 

Trump should realize why Israel went to war with Iran now. As a response to the kidnapping of its own citizens by Hamas in October, 2023, Israel has decimated Hamas. It extended that war with Iran’s proxy in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and has weakened that group, leaving it a shadow of itself. As luck would have it, with Russia bogged down in Ukraine, the Russians couldn’t protect Assad in Syria and with Assad’s fall, Syria is weak and not a threat to Israel. From Israel’s perspective, now was the right time to attack Iran, which has always talked of wiping out the Jewish state. No Hamas, no Hezbollah, no Syria – Israel has fewer fronts to worry about by attacking Iran now.

 

But that is the point. It may be the right time from Israel’s point, but none of these things changes anything from America’s perspective. A fractured Iran is an unpredictable outcome (good, bad, indifferent?), not necessarily a good thing for the US. The terrain of Iran, as explained, makes it impossible for any invader to ever truly control the country. A “never ending war” looms.

~~

 

I hope Trump doesn’t go to war in Iran. But, as one of my college friends said on our WhatsApp group, “It makes no sense for the US to go to war with Iran. Which is probably why they will.”