Sinophrenia #1: Doomsday Predictions

When it comes to China, few can be rational. After all, China’s data is manipulated (Though by how much, and at what times, is unknown). Its policy makers are notoriously non-transparent. Ideological beliefs muddy the waters: how can communism work? Plus, there is envy. And lastly, fear.

 

One thing though. China-is-doomed theories aren’t new. Such theories have abounded since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping moved China from the Mao’ist (i.e., ideologist) track to the only-results-matter track (“Practice is the sole criteria for truth”). This is famously captured in Deng’s line:

“It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”

 

No wonder then that Thomas Orlik’s take on China’s current problems and its track record dealing with its earlier problems going back to 1978 is titled, China: the Bubble that Never Pops. As Orlik says:

“To read the history of modern China (i.e., 1978 onwards) is to read the history of China collapse theories”

Poverty would lead to the overthrow of the communist party. The regime couldn’t survive Tiananmen Square. The fall of the USSR would cause all the communist dominos to fall, including China. As China grew richer, its middle class would demand democracy and freedom and overthrow of the communist rulers. The Internet would make it impossible to hide information from the average citizen, with all its attendant threats for a secretive and (at times) oppressive regime. The Western financial crisis of 2007 would derail China’s economy. Corruption is rife and out of control, and would eventually fester deep anger and possibly revolt.

“So far they have one thing in common: they have all been wrong.”

But are they wrong altogether? Or have they just been wrong about the timing of the collapse? Only time can tell…

 

And yet, many people also feel (fear?) that China will rule the world. Even more funnily, the same people can hold both the collapse and world dominance views! Like Schrodinger’s cat. Orlik, therefore, coins a “schizophrenia”-like term for the situation:

“Call it ‘Sinophrenia’: the simultaneous belief that China is about to collapse and about to take over the world.”