Rise of China - Running into India

In the last blog, I went over one half of the China Ascendant book, the part of the inevitable dual purpose of most China’s policies wrt almost every other country -its attempts to create and secure trade and oil supply routes. All of which leads to the need to have connections to the Indian Ocean.

 

And that is where they run into India. Build a port and a corridor from the Arabian Sea in Pakistan, and it spooks India. When China tries to hedge its bets wrt Pakistan and hence tries to build an alternate corridor via Bangladesh instead, India feels encircled. Try to secure sea routes from Europe/Middle East to China, and India feels the Chinese Navy is getting too close to India. When China takes possession of that Sri Lankan port for failure to repay loans, China is suddenly right next door to India. South East Asian countries feel threatened by China’s expansionism. When India tries to get close to them with its Look East policy, China wonders if India’s approach is dual use (economic as well as military)?

 

With all that in mind, consider these questions: Are the increasing standoffs between India and China a test of resolve – how far will each side go? Can India really stand up to China, within those limits? If Yes, would this make India the preferred “defender” for South East Asian countries that don’t want to take a side in a US-China clash, but don’t want China to take over any islands and sea routes that they want either?

 

I am not denying a lot of Chinese actions wrt the Indian Ocean are dual use (economic as well as military), but it is leading to an inevitable spiral of more and more mistrust and actual standoffs between the two countries. All of the above is why many analysts feel a major conflict between India and China will happen, not in the Himalayas, but in the Indian Ocean.

 

But is there hope? After all, the two countries do “need” each other. India lies in the route to many OBOR/Silk Road opportunities for China, so more trust and less fear could open the door to many opportunities for both countries. An India that feels overwhelmed by China may feel “forced” to fall into America’s arms, an outcome highly unappealing to China since the American Navy could end up in Indian ports, a clear threat to China’s attempts to secure its transport/oil lines from Europe and the Middle East. As two huge, growing economies, the benefits of trade are obvious. And lastly, all existing international institutions are white man controlled (IMF, World Bank etc) and they will never allow India or China to get too much influence. Which leaves these countries (and Brazil and Russia) with no choice but to group up to form alternate institutions as an alternate power center to the West.

 

So how will things play out? It’s hard to say, but with the rise of China, that Chinese curse (may you live in interesting times) is spreading everywhere.