Rise of China - the non-India Parts

Given the increasing and prolonged standoffs with China, I read this collection of articles by Indian analysts on a rising China named China Ascendant. Since it is an assorted collection, there’s no unifying theme to the book. On the upside, the same lack of theme allows for different, even contradictory, perspectives…

 

The key point that emerges is that China is flexing its muscles to become the next superpower. And India is caught in the middle of that rise. For most Indians, this is too emotive an issue to be able to see or acknowledge. So I’ll focus here on the parts that are not “aimed” at India. And loop back to India in the next blog.

 

Like it or not, China is viewed positively by many, many countries. Its model of “authoritarian capitalism” (i.e., no democracy) appeals in areas where democracy is not well established, from South America to even eastern Europe. And China fishes in troubled waters, like lending to Greece during the 2008 financial crisis, when Germany and the EU were all sanctimonious. Another appeal of China lies in the fact that, unlike the former USSR, and present-day US/EU combine, China doesn’t (can’t?) topple foreign governments.

 

Africa, in particular, has benefited from China. Yes, part of that is due to Chinese investment for access to resources like metals and oil. The less well-known point is that as the cost of certain work (and workers) has increased in an increasingly rich China, it has been outsourcing that work to Africa!

 

Then there’s the modern-day Silk Road (or OBOR - One Belt, One Road) that China builds across Asia. Obviously, China is not being altruistic here: (1) it provides China with an alternate-t0-sea route to Europe, (2) it provides connectivity to the Indian Ocean, potentially cutting down oil delivery time, and (3) those OBOR infrastructure projects inevitably go to Chinese companies, thereby giving them the next set of projects as China’s own infrastructure needs are slowing down. But, and this is a mistake, focusing only on the benefits to China makes one forget the all too real benefits to those poorer countries.

 

The OBOR/Silk Road, of course, is a double-edged sword, as Sri Lanka learnt the hard way when it had to lease a port to China for 99 years when it couldn’t repay the loan. Conversely, Sri Lanka’s experience spooked many other countries, who are now not as enthusiastic about OBOR. But OBOR is not the only way China increasingly influences other countries: its “business and investment” translates into increasingly influence in Asia and Africa, and even “western” counties like Australia. The West had its own version of OBOR – the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after World War II with American money:

“The United States’ Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Europe was a typical example of an economics-heavy approach underpinned by military strength... A purely economic enterprise like OBOR, therefore, cannot escape its own militarization.”

The relation with Russia is complicated. China needs Russian oil, and serves as yet another country for Chinese exports. And both share an aversion to American hegemony. But Russia doesn’t like to play second fiddle, even if that is where things are probably headed. And Russia considers those Central Asian countries through which OBOR runs its backyard, and thus resents any Chinese military influence in those countries.

 

A rising China is increasingly assertive militarily… everywhere. It uses the “aggrieved power” narrative with Taiwan and the “lost territories” argument wrt Japan. Then there’s naked greed in the oil rich South China Sea. Notice the common theme in all the areas mentioned above? The need for naval power. No wonder then that China is working so hard to be a naval power, a “blue water navy” with aircraft carrier groups, “bridging of the gap between Chinese and American conventional naval forces”:

“Every great power has secured its status on the geopolitical stage by using a robust naval force, and China is no different.”

 

And it is that point, the rise of China’s naval power, that lies at the heart of India’s increasing problems with China. Let’s get to that in the next blog.