Democracy to Strongman: Part 2


After Caesar’s assassination, Mark Antony made the blunder of having his will read in public assuming he’d be the heir, says Edward Watts in the podcast. Instead, the will declared Caesar’s nephew, Octavian, the heir, not Mark Antony.

But remember, here “heir” didn’t mean the next emperor. Because that post was not institutionalized, and Caesar was a one-off exception to the way Rome’s (distributed) power system operated. Octavian was only going to inherit Caesar’s sizable wealth and name. As luck would have it, Octavian was far from Rome at the time, and just 19. Nobody thought he’d claim the legacy as, with his youth and inexperience, that would be like signing his own death warrant in the vicious power struggle that was sure to follow. But Octavian surprised everybody: he fought a vicious civil war over who'd succeed Caesar (him or Mark A), won, and took over the emperor's position (He renamed himself Augustus Caesar).

Along the way, Octavian had chased Mark A to Egypt, where he broke protocol by making the conquered Egypt his private property, not Rome’s. This move would have lasting impact on what followed. Octavian/Augustus deliberately governed Rome such that it would run a deficit (debt), and guess who’d bail it out each time? Yes, Octavian via his inherited wealth + Egypt. Plus, he made sure everyone knew that it was Octavian, the private citizen, who was bailing Rome out. The public saw him as the savior who helped save dysfunctional Rome time and time again. And that is how Octavian managed to establish the post of emperor as the new normal, overthrowing the Republic for good. Plus, he ensured the army became loyal to the man who paid their salaries: Octavian, not Rome.

Watts points out a key aspect to Octavian’s rule: since he started young (remember he was 19?), plus a master politician to boot, he ruled for long (several decades). This meant that by the time he died, practically nobody alive even remembered the pre-Caesar era when the Republic was ever functional.

Watts’ takeaway is that a capable individual can overthrow a weak system. In a different era, where the Senate and Republic were strong and functional, it is unlikely that Octavian could have become emperor.

So yes, those who fear strongman rule are right in saying that we need strong institutions in place (the other houses of power, judiciary etc). But that’s only part of the need: the other half, the need for them to be functional entities is just as important. Perhaps it’s time to focus on fixing those other entities, otherwise, the next modern democracy could fall to a modern-day equivalent of Octavian.

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