Staying Relevant

The twists and turns, betrayals and horse-trading leading to Uddhav Thackeray becoming Chief Minister of Maharashtra are worthy of a face-paced novel or political thriller. Santosh Desai sums it up perfectly:

“The real lesson from Maharashtra is not about any one political party’s victory or defeat… Everyone’s greed and opportunism have helped cancel out everyone’s else’s greed and opportunism.”

Sharad Pawar’s NCP comes off as the one on whom the least criticism can be hurled. The Congress, on the other hand?

“The Congress’ claims about its commitment to secularism lie in tatters. In the current context, its attempt to position itself as a counterpoint to the BJP is rendered laughable given its willingness to partner a party that has historically been to the right of the BJP.”

Wait a minute. Didn’t the Shiv Sena say it was abandoning its Hindutva agenda, “betrayed its long-time alliance partner but showed a willingness to move beyond its core ideological position in order to win power”? The part about grabbing power is certainly true, but is/can the Shiv Sena really going to abandon its Hindutva agenda?

Shekhar Gupta, on his YouTube video, says it’s possible though by no means a certainty. Why? Aren’t politicians known to say whatever suits the hour? Yes, Gupta agrees, but this may well have been a crucial fork in the road for the Shiv Sena. Do they stick to their Hindutva agenda, and pay second fiddle to the BJP? Or do they abandon the Hindutva agenda to become a part of the Opposition alliance, not just now in Maharashtra but also in the next national elections? Being part of the NDA when the BJP can form a majority on its own at the Center doesn’t give the Shiv Sena any leverage. But being part of an Opposition coalition may well give them significant clout if they came to power in 2024. As Gupta says, in politics, staying relevant can trump any ideology.

Staying relevant. That may also explain why the Congress was willing to tie up with the Shiv Sena. While the risks of the Shiv Sena going back to Hindutva are high, and the damage to the Congress’ own vote bank of allying with the Shiv Sena could be significant, is the Congress now painted into a corner where staying relevant trumps its own left-of-center ideology?

And this is why Gupta is not as pessimistic as most on the viability of the Maharashtra government. He believes the unifying theme for all 3 parties is not just naked power and greed (yes, it is also that), but the longer term theme of (that phrase again) staying relevant.

Gupta wonders if the BJP has become the new Congress. No, not as a corrupt party, not as a minority appeaser, not as a dynastic party. Rather he muses if the BJP is the new Congress from the one-party-dominates-the-country perspective. And just as a few decades back, the Congress dominance led to unlikely bed-fellows like the Jan Sangh and the Left becoming allies, is Maharashtra a sign of everyone being forced to gang up against the BJP today, not because it is “communal” but because it is so utterly dominant?

It’s a certainly an interesting possibility, which is why Gupta titles his video as “Maharashtra marks the biggest shift in national politics since Modi’s rise in 2014”.