The Bigger Picture

After the Maharashtra and Haryana elections, Karan Thapar wondered if state elections focused on issues like the state of the economy, the effects of demonetization, and rural distress in general? Whereas the national elections, held just a few months back, was based one on national security, thanks to the Balakot strikes? Thapar got it all wrong.

Shekhar Gupta in his YouTube talk wondered if it was a sign that voters voted for a strong man at the center in national elections. Whereas at the state level, they vote based on other criteria. Further, continued Gupta, a year back, BJP and allies ruled 70% of India’s territory. Today, post-Maharashtra and Haryana, that figure is down to 48%. Is this a sign that we’ve crossed Peak BJP?

Before I continue, I’ll take a deviation. But don’t worry, this diversion will join the main thread of the questions raised above. Many people ask why the right is so angry. Even though they’ve been in power for the last 5 ½ years. And another 4 ½ years to go. So what are they still so mad about, goes the refrain.

Those who ask that question think this is just about being in power. Yes, it is that also. But not only that. It’s also about the desire to change the fundamental structure of this country, to be more assertive, to do what’s (they think) right for the country, to not be appeasing Muslims. In the first term, Modi & Co couldn’t really achieve any of that. Why not? Because they didn’t have the numbers in the Rajya Sabha. Like the American Senate, the Rajya Sabha has staggered elections, i.e., its members are replaced in batches, 1/3^rd every 2 years. But unlike the Senate, the Rajya Sabha is elected not by the people, but by the legislatures of the states. All this translates into 2 key points:

• Changing the composition of the RS takes time;
• And it requires winning more and more state elections first.

But by 2019, both points had been achieved. The BJP/NDA had (almost) majority in both houses. And right away, they revoked Article 370. The Ayodhya verdict couldn’t have arrived at a better time, and it was in the Goldilocks zone of favourability: just right. Too much in favour would have been a bad verdict since they’d have to build a temple right away, a step that would surely evoke protests and scare away many of its non-extreme supporters. And now the NRC and CAB have declared the country as a country for people of Indian origin religions.

Back to the main thread. Shekhar Gupta nails it when he says the BJP may or may not have passed its peak. Only time will tell. But it has timed things to perfection: it may be “shrinking politically” but it is “winning big time ideologically”. Remember, any attempt to undo the BJP’s decisions on all these fronts will require the Opposition to win the Lok Sabha (4 ½ years away), and muster the majority in the Rajya Sabha, which as we saw requires control of more states and is a slow process. In the meantime, the right’s ideology is becoming the national policy by law and by legislation.