Copying the China Playbook in Kashmir?


In his book on how geography often dictates a country’s policies, Prisoners of Geography, Tim Marshall explains why Tibet and Xinjiang matter so much to China. If Tibet were not under Chinese control, it would allow an invading force (aka India) to use the Tibetan Plateau as the base “from which to push into the Chinese heartland”. Even more critical is that Tibet is “China’s Water Tower”, the source of China’s great rivers: the Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong. An enemy who controlled Tibet could disrupt their water supply. Did you roll your eyes at all this? Aha, then let Marshall spell out the key point:
“It matters not what whether India wants to cut off China’s river supply, only that it would have the power to do so… This is the geopolitics of fear.”
And after taking over Tibet, China has built a railway line to Tibet. That line brings in modernity, consumer goods, tourists… and yes, “several million Han Chinese (mainland China) settlers”.

The other troublesome region for China is Xinjiang, with its Muslim/Uighur population. Why is it so important?
“It not only border eight countries, thus buffering the heartland, but it also has oil, and is home to China’s nuclear weapons testing sites.”
Given China’s Silk Road plans, a region that borders eight countries is always going to be valuable. And as with Tibet, the “new towns and cities springing up across Xinjiang” along the Silk Road are “overwhelmingly populated by Han Chinese”.

I wonder if India is going to copy the Chinese playbook in Kashmir, now that Article 370 has been revoked, by gradually changing its population to be “overwhelmingly” mainland Indians. Any such migrants will almost certainly need government protection in the beginning, and it does sound like such measures are being considered for the non-local workforce already.

But why do we care about Kashmir so much? As Marshall writes in his book, India wants Kashmir not just because of national pride, but also because it is so strategic. If India controlled all of Kashmir, it would “give India a window into Central Asia and a border with Afghanistan”. Equally, “it would also deny Pakistan a border with China, and thus diminish the usefulness of a Chinese-Pakistani relationship”. And then there are those rivers that originate/flow via Kashmir…

All this sound depressing? If it’s any consolation, Marshall cites instance after instance in his book across every single part of the world, where national policies are still dictated on many fronts by geography. Ok, that’s not much of a consolation, but it’s certainly a truth of the world we live in.

Comments

  1. Ramiah KumarOctober 25, 2019 at 10:52 AM

    Thanks to this blog points, I can see the strategic advantages of controlling Kashmir as Indian territory.

    As to the question of the troubled issue, "Whether it is India or Pakistan to whom Kashmir should belong to?", the political time-tested answer has always been, "a terrain belongs to whoever asserts military might for ownership, followed by how well not-to-bad kind of (i.e. not overly oppressive) administrative control is maintained". In other words, might is one half of the story and absence of administrative failure is the other half.

    So far, despite being a superior power compared to Pakistan, India has not asserted militarily in a decisive fashion, even after dealing some big blows to Pakistan. That must the truth, otherwise, how can anyone explain Pakistan's tenacity to keep up its 'ownership assertion' over Kashmir, with a vigor that hasn't changed a bit from the inception?

    It is both understandable and obvious that all international players play only politics for their own advantages, exploiting as much as possible the non-stop power struggle between India and Pakistan. "There are no free lunches" applies only to commoners; politics is all about "the ability to milk anyone for free lunches", after "managing to meet the essential requirements and preferential demands of one's own nation". Even the most sincere and dedicated-to-the-welfare kind of politicians cannot play their role without tricks and deceits in politics - it is no individual's fault; the domain is a murky domain and fated to be so forever too.

    Today, Modi-ji is a political leader who is as close to having absolute power as possible, under democratic circumstances. Modi's charisma is unprecedented in this land. People here are supporting this leader as never before. And, many people can't tolerate even mild criticism of Modi irrespective of whether there is valid reason for a criticism.

    The truth is this: Modi glory is catapulted to Himalayan heights, partly due to the paucity of leadership all around at the present; but principally Modi charisma arises out of people's extreme anger regarding some important things going wrong with earlier rulers - the uncaring, bottom-of-the-well-living leftists. Even today, some of my friends are seething with deep personal anger! Nevertheless, national decisions and actions will have to be based on "what is right and most-suited and what is practical and non-damaging". And then, choose to do what needs to be done. Anger and past-frustration cannot be the driver for that. Inner strength and cool-headed administrative actions lead to long-term good. My premise is that "turbulent/angry minds cannot produce long-term good for oneself and others". I hope and pray that Modi administration is clear-headed and positive. Since the people are with Modi, he can achieve much and even pull off difficult issues successfully.

    On this particular vexing issue of Kashmir, I believe "it is do or die". Either Modi government pulls it off effectively so that within decades this issue stops being vexing. On the other hand, continued turmoil in Kashmir for centuries to come may suit Pakistan but it suits none else; it may be detrimental to India's own health actually. Lastly, Kashmiris deserve peace more than anything, away from the misery they have been inflicted upon by the two powers fighting on their soil non-stop. I am no politician but a human being, who identifies with the suffering of the people. People matter to me, hence I want peace, normalcy and progress in Kashmir. May it happen and may it happen soon.

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