Breaking Away - 2

In an earlier blog on secession, I listed the rational criteria that regions should use to make such a choice. But in real life, how is this tendency? Are nations on the verge of splitting up? Or did they stay united? Does splintering create too many tiny countries that then form groups like the EU and NATO, sometimes to create a market, at others for protection?

One view is that things don’t look good. No area, no matter how small, seems immune to the possibility of secession:

-         Teeny tiny Belgium is not stable thanks to the deep-rooted differences between Dutch speaking Flanders and French speaking Wallonia;

-         Venice has petitioned the EU to hold a referendum to secede from Italy.

-         Catalan forcibly conducted a referendum even though the Spanish central government had declared it illegal.

Personally though I agree with Tyler Cowen that all this is just an “overrated pseudo-trend”. After all, he says:

“Quebec secession didn’t happen, Scotland said no, Catalonia limps along but the smart money is betting against actual secession, and Belgium is still together.”

And many of the large countries are very stable:

“China, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria probably are more unified than they ever have been in their histories… Brazil and Mexico are two pretty large countries that show zero signs of splitting up.”

How about the US under Trump?

“The hatreds and polarizations don’t match up with state lines so simply, and it is hard to imagine an actual process of secession with focal boundaries and sufficient consent.”

Cowen does feel that parts of Africa may splinter, but even if that were to happen, it would be a regional trend. Contrary to what the pessimists may say, it doesn’t look like countries are breaking up at the drop of a hat.