Doomed or Not?

The environmental cost of the fast economic growth is visible in the capitals of the two fastest growing economies in the world: Beijing and New Delhi. The solutions, unfortunately, are not easy. No, it’s not just political or vested interests that are the problem. The bigger problem is the old ecology saying:

“You can’t do just one thing.”

Expanded, that means that you can’t change one element of an ecosystem without having unintended consequences on other parts of the ecosystem.

Take the obvious solution of finding a viable fuel source than oil. That very prospect puts the oil producers on their guard because as Anatole Kaletsky says:

“Environmental pressures and advances in clean energy (would) transform much of their oil into a worthless “stranded asset” that can never be used or sold.”

So what do the oil producers do? Apart from lobbying, they start pumping as much as oil as they can before it becomes a “stranded asset”. Consequences?

a)     That means that oil prices drop (as indeed they have). That in turn makes alternative sources less viable.

b)     The lower oil price means lower profits. This is a particularly dangerous problem for the major oil producers of today since they are all monarchies or variants of dictatorships. In such places, less money will inevitably translate into social unrest and who know, revolutions? Who knows how such turmoil will impact the rest of the world?

Or take the other solution: reducing the human population. China tried that with its one-child policy. Consequence?

a)     An aging population. As per a UN report, China’s population of over 60 year olds will increase from 12.4% to 28.1% between 2010 and 2040. A higher share of older people will inevitably create social and economic problems.

So China now allows two children. Europe faces a similar aging problem; and hence gives incentives to have more kids.

Does that mean there’s no way out, that we are doomed? Or will the solution have to be something that we can’t imagine just yet? I am not pessimistic on this count because the Malthusian catastrophe that predicted that human population would expand far faster than the rate of food production didn’t come to pass either. Mankind has a tendency to predict apocalypses that never come to pass. And we have the ability to invent new technologies that almost seem like magic.