Contradictory Signals

Raghu S. Jaitley makes an interesting observation about the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. On the one hand, almost everyone says “it appears like the most pointless LS election in living memory”. The BJP’s victory appears to be a foregone conclusion (Modi talks of winning 400 seats), and the opposition seems to be in disarray with endless arguments over seat-sharing arrangements.

“It is either the failure of the political imagination of the opposition leaders or the relative success of this government that we might not have any overarching theme that serves as the connective tissue to the multiple state or local issues.”

Which is why Jaitley says:

“While I can foresee lots of drama and rhetoric in campaigns at the state level, this will be a ‘no wave’ election, which means it will be impossible to dislodge the incumbent.”

 

And yet, there are other signs and actions of the BJP that “belie this optimism”.

“The eagerness to stitch alliances across states and political spectrums - JD(S) in Karnataka, PMK in Tamil Nadu, LJP in Bihar - and the easy ceding of seats to these allies, the wait for BJD in Odisha, the proactive strikes on the electoral machinery of AAP and Congress and the decision to not give tickets to a large proportion of sitting MPs all suggest some distress signals from the ground that might be at odds with the general sense of optimism the party is projecting at the moment.”

 

The two sets of signals are contradictory (one of a no-contest; the other of paranoia), so while Jaitley doesn’t claim to have an answer (or theory), it makes him wonder what exactly is going on…

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