On Two Wars, and Another Possible One

When the Ukraine war started, the West was sure that their economic countermeasures against Russia would cripple it and force an early end to the war. The EU would stop buying oil and natural gas. Western companies would shut shop in Russia, from Visa and Mastercard to McDonald’s. Russia would be kicked out of the international financial system. Sanctions imposed.

 

Did things work out as expected? Nope, the Ukraine war continues, and Russia has had positive economic growth despite all Western efforts.

 

On the other hand, there is the Israel war in Gaza that has been going on for several months, with no end in sight. Despite no sanctions, and in fact, complete support from the West (well ok, America really; and what America says, the West follows), Israel’s economy shrank by 5.2% on a quarter-by-quarter comparison.

“The sharp drop was caused in part by the call-up of 300,000 reservists, who had to leave behind their workplaces and businesses to embark on months of army service, the Central Bureau of Statistics said.”

And:

“Other factors to hit the economy included the government’s sponsorship of housing for more than 120,000 Israelis evacuated from the northern and southern border areas of the country.”

Other factors include the self-inflicted labour shortages by the restrictions on Palestinian workers.

 

All this despite the US pumping money as aid to Israel.

 

About the increasing Chinese military threats to Taiwan, there is a non-stop barrage of Western commentary that a war there would have devastating consequences for the world (mostly because semiconductor manufacturing, esp. high-end ones, are so concentrated in TSMC, a Taiwanese company). Imagine the consequences if there is a chip shortage, in a world that is so digitized today.

 

While that is true, that is a possibility, not a reality today. On the other hand, the Israel war has created risks to safe passage in the Suez Canal, which adds to transportation costs and delays that is already impacting the world. Not only is there pin-drop silence in the Western press on this, unsurprisingly, there’s no criticism in the West on America’s vetoing UN efforts to end the Gaza war. So much for talk of a free press in the West.

 

Is the West too blinded? Too arrogant? Too unwilling to adjust to a changing world order, where its supremacy is reducing? Or is it a problem with the kind of people America elects as President, regardless of party?

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