India's Role in China’s Belt and Road

Now that we’ve gone over the idea behind and the fears with China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR), let’s look at India’s reaction via Bruno Macaes’ book, Belt and Road.

 

First, India feels OBOR in its current form creates “unsustainable burdens of debt” (remember the Sri Lankan port that China took over via a 99-year lease?). We’ll come to the “in its current form” part of the criticism a bit later in this blog.

 

The other problem that India has with OBOR is far more intractable, namely that parts of it run through Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK):

“Most obviously, it threatens to turn Pakistan’s occupation of part of Kashmir into a fait accompli.”

 

The other danger for India is long-term. As India’s economy gets bigger, it will inevitably want to “develop deep international links and supply chains, most immediately in its neighbourhood”. But OBOR threatens to create a scenario wherein by the time India is economically rich enough to act, it’ll be too late.

 

In a simpler world, all India would have been able to do was fret against a bigger, stronger country like China. In the complicated world though, opposition and fear of OBOR has driven India and the US closer. Plus, if OBOR doesn’t include a market as huge as India, that could be a great loss for China’s future growth. A hostile India would continue to throw a spanner in the works via its geography and influence on Nepal, Bangladesh and Maldives. Besides, China needs Pakistan to be stable for the pipelines from the Arabian Sea. Which requires both India and Pakistan to cooperate. In addition:

“The nations of South Asia, unlike their Central Asian counterparts, have a clear alternative (to China) on offer in India.”

 

All of which is why India puts China in a tough position, wherein “to continue ignoring or dismissing India’s interests and positions might turn out to be a gross miscalculation”.

 

So yes, while India has serious concerns with OBOR, there are also clear benefits provided OBOR is changed in some ways to address India’s fears. All of which is why we are in the current situation:

“India, aware of its central importance, is in no hurry to make its choice.”

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