Friends with (Risky) Benefits

The Pulwama attack is back in the news again, thanks to a (current) opposition party leader and ex-Speaker in Pakistan, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. He claimed in Pakistan’s Parliament that the reason for releasing captured Indian Air Force Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was fear of a bigger Indian attack.

 

This blog, though, isn’t about the reasons why the pilot was released. Rather, it’s about something this news reminded me of, from that book of assorted assessments on China I had read some time back (China Ascendant). It’s a question many ask: despite being Pakistan’s so called “all-weather friend”, why didn’t China say, threaten or do anything during that episode (and other such similar incidents)?

 

Part of the answer is that China’s investments and support for Pakistan isn’t “altruistic” (obviously). It is about China’s strategic, bigger picture interests: (1) Part of its Silk Road/OBOR connectivity project needs to run through Pakistan, culminating in the Gwadar port, and (2) a friendly Pakistan prevent coordination between Islamic extremists and China’s own problematic Uighur region. A Pakistan that got into any war with India, even a short one, puts China’s above-mentioned interests at risk.

 

The other reason is that it’s one thing for China to veto UN resolutions against Pakistan, it’s a whole different thing for China to engage militarily in support of Pakistan. The optics of such a move is terrible for China: “China enters war in support of the fountainhead of terrorism” is not the headline China wants splashed around the world: it would kill the positive, peaceful and responsible nation brand image they are working so hard to create for themselves.

 

And if China did enter any India-Pakistan conflict, would the Americans follow, muddying the waters with no clear winners, and even worse, American troops getting stationed in India? China certainly doesn’t want to risk having American troops in yet another neighboring country: they hate it enough that the US is in Japan, South Korea, Philippines already.

 

Even if India wouldn’t allow US troops to be stationed in India, would military actions by China drive India to revisit the Quad (US, Japan, Australia and India) alliance? Today, all 4 countries let the possibility of that alliance hang as a threat to China: push any of us too far, they seem to say, and you’ll find a multi-nation alliance lined up against you.

 

I guess all that’s why China hasn’t and is unlikely to enter into a war against India as an ally of anybody else. The cost-benefit ratio is too heavily slanted toward the cost-to-China side of the balance.

 

Of course, that doesn’t mean China won’t get offensive against India, if that suits China’s own interests. But that’s a different topic…

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