Positive or Negative Vote

Santosh Desai describes the choice for on-the-fence, open-to-changing-their-stance voters as follows:

“Depending on how one sees it, the choices could be framed in several ways. Anarchy or Autocracy? Corruption or Hate? Instability or Institutional collapse? If the choices were described in such starkly negative terms, what is it that one is truly offended by?”

Here’s how I’d answer his last question. When people are presented with such negative choices, they look for something positive in the side they pick. And on that front, the Opposition fails miserably since they have nothing in common other than wanting Modi to lose (that’s a negative “not Modi” agenda). Modi, on the other hand, (rightly or wrongly) is associated with decisiveness, as the “person most likely to bring about transformational change in the economy” and “the feeling that even if his first term might not have delivered fully, he is still the best option among the choices available”. Modi is (still) associated with hope. And hope, as they say, can inspire, move mountains and… maybe win elections.

I found Karan Thapar’s interview with Ramachandra Guha on Tiranga channel balanced and refreshing. Among the many interesting points Guha made:

1) Mamata is so like Modi, all autocratic and “Bengal is my fiefdom” like;

2) Rahul may have improved compared to 2014, but he has zero administrative experience. His ego didn’t allow him to serve under Manmohan Singh and learn on the job, and now the waters are muddied even more for him with the desperate enlisting of Priyanka;

3) Wild cards like Mayawati still think they have a (long) shot at being PM. After all, if Deve Gowda could with barely 20-25 MP’s, anybody can, says Guha only half tongue-in-cheek;

4) The Opposition has contradictory goals, during elections: keep Modi out (which means seat sharing at state level) v/s remaining significant (which means getting the highest possible LS seats for themselves);

5) The Opposition has no common agenda, for governance, should they win;

6) Modi has achieved little in 5 years, but corruption has certainly reduced, which allows the BJP to convert 2019 into a Corruption or Us campaign.

All of that is why Guha feels many on the fence would vote for the BJP (stability over some rag tag bunch of nothing-in-common outfits). Even more attractive for many on the fence is this scenario:

1) Modi wins but BJP doesn’t get an absolute majority; so Modi needs to listen to his NDA allies this time around;

2) The NDA majority turns out to be a much smaller than 2014;

In other words, Modi as second time PM with clipped wings. No longer possible to be as autocratic as his first term, a Modi in that avatar is acceptable to many, and, adds Guha, might well be the best outcome for the country.

Is Guha right or wrong? We’ll know come result date this May.