Policy Towards Pakistan

I found Pranay Kotasthane’s view on what should be India’s policy towards Pakistan interesting. He cites the common argument that trying to improve ties is a waste of time because the Pakistani military-jihadi combo will scuttle any such attempts anyway.

 

Kotasthane argues India should continue its current policy of “treating Pakistan as a distraction rather than a prime focus area”. He says:

“India benefits far more from having China—and not Pakistan—as its main rival.”

Why/how?

“Focusing on a larger, richer, and more advanced adversary makes Indian policymakers think of “levelling up” rather than “punching down”. Countering China as a mission statement makes India focus on national power across all its dimensions — technological, economic, and military. In contrast, a focus on Pakistan makes Indian policymakers narrowly focus on counter-terrorism and conventional military power.”

 

But he adds a caveat – don’t be dismissive of Pakistan either. Take Israel, he says. Their current approach is entirely driven by the actions of Hamas, not a deliberate, thought out policy of their own. We should not forget, he says, that Pakistan and its terrorist outfits have the same power – they could force a policy or choice on us by their actions, even if our focus is on China. As that military saying goes:

“The enemy always get a vote in your strategy.”

 

Then again, he says, Pakistan or its terrorist groups may not end up dictating our policy the way it has for Israel now. After the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, he says, there was tremendous domestic desire to retaliate, the same as what Israel felt. But unlike Hamas, Pakistan had nuclear weapons. Whether by choice, or almost certainly by having no choice, India could take no military action after 26/11. But India could demonstrably prove the Pakistani hand, for once. That combined with India’s growing economic clout and market size in the 15 years since then has moved most Western countries to India’s side.

“In a way, the restraint in 2008 made the 2016 surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes viable options.”

 

To summarize, his prescription is that India be cautious but doesn’t let Pakistan dictate our bigger picture vision. And India should focus on keeping China at bay, because that has plenty of positive consequences (economic and technological) beyond just the deterrent military one.