The New Bipolar World

In his book on how COVID-19 might (re)shape the world, Fareed Zakaria has a chapter on whether the epidemic is accelerating the rise of a new bipolar system. Even as America got bogged down by the war on terror, the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, China grew and grew. And while China hid the COVID-19 danger for far too long, when they did launch into action, they got it under control (within China). On the other hand, America’s (mis)handling of the epidemic has been so hopeless that it has evoked a feeling that has rarely been directed towards America, as columnist Fintan O’Toole wrote:

“There is one emotion that has never been directed towards the US until now: pity.”

Some take all these as signs that China is going to take over the world even as America keeps fumbling.

 

On the other hand, as Zakaria points out, America is still the world’s largest economy. The world’s reserve currency is still the US dollar, which gives America the enormous advantage of printing money (as opposed to borrowing money). And its military is still far, far stronger than the Chinese military. Then again:

“What has shifted noticeably in recent years is America’s “soft power”.

(“Soft power” refers to its appeal, and ability to set the agenda).

 

Even as the US is far ahead of China on many fronts, Zakaria feels we are still headed for a bipolar world because these two countries are miles ahead of the rest. In the last bipolar world, the Soviets matched the Americans militarily but little else. This time around though, China is the opposite of the Soviets. It is much weaker militarily, but ahead and equal to the US on many fronts, esp. technology. While the US-USSR trade rarely crossed $2 billion annually, US-China trade is more than that on a daily basis. US and China are tied to each other economically, leading to the term “Chimerica”. In short, as Zakaria says:

“No two bipolar systems are the same.”

 

China’s economic rise puts the US in unchartered waters. Since World War II, states that rose in wealth have all been America’s allies, from western Europe to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Until now, that is:

“(China) has also always lived outside the United States’ alliance structures and sphere of influence.”

 

All doom and gloom for the US then? Not entirely:

“China’s fundamental geostrategic weakness has always been an abundance of nearby countries that oppose its rise… (it is) encircled by hostile neighbors that are growing more adversarial by the month.”

 

With India in particular, has China bitten off more than it can chew, wonders Srikanth Kondapalli:

“China’s initial confidence that it can bulldoze India waned as the Indian Army upped the ante on August 29 by regaining control over five hill tops and now has a commanding position on the Kailash ranges.”

While neither nuclear power wants to escalate things beyond the point of no return, India isn’t backing down either. And both indulge in psych warfare. The Chinese machinery screams out that:

“Chinese have better winter-clothing, possible use of microwave weapons, supplies of “hotpot” food to front line troops through drones, flying the latest fighter aircraft, missiles, etc”

And India retorts that its troops have “high-altitude training and warfighting experience” (think Siachen), and that as a richer country, Chinese troops were raised with “five-star” luxuries, spoilt kids thanks to China’s one-child policy.

 

Is China blundering into multi-front hostilities, Zakaria wonders, from Taiwan to Japan to the South China Sea to India. Oh, all those besides the US itself.