Lockdown Extension Inevitable?

Odisha and Punjab have extended the lockdown beyond the planned date of April 14. Most political parties (80%) have said that whenever the lockdown is lifted, it should be done slowly and in phases. That individual states may still choose to prevent inter-state movement etc. Modi too has been giving indications that the lockdown will be extended… All the signs are pointing in one direction.

The new cases per day have certainly increased over the last 7-10 days:

But the problem of getting supplies continues. In Wuhan, China ensured that food packets would be dropped at everyone’s door during the lockdown. No other country has been able to ensure such a delivery system, which is why everyone else’s attempts at lockdowns are anywhere between non-existent and far less stringent. Plus, a “hard lockdown” is constitutionally illegal in many countries.

Plus, as Chidambaram rightly says, all governments needs to ensure money transfer to the poor happens regularly. Much harder is identifying what is a reasonable amount.

So yes, both those problems (supplies and money to the poor) need to be addressed. But if those are too hard (or impossible), can we lift the lockdown? Or would that trigger the need to reissue one a short while later as cases and deaths spike? Japan just activated another round of lockdown, based on a spike in new cases, much, much after they seemed to have things under control:

Tyler Cowen is right in saying that lockdowns are as much a function of political will as they are of medical necessity:

“I don’t view “optimal length of shutdown” arguments compelling, rather it is about how much pain the political process can stand.”

Here’s his lament about the US on that count:

“I expect partial reopenings by mid-May, sometimes driven by governors in the healthier states, even if that is sub-optimal for the nation as a whole… We may lose a coherent national policy on the shutdown issue altogether, not that we have one now.”

On that front, India has been surprisingly united politically, some would say unbelievably so. The worst course here is to oscillate on the pandemic yoyo, to “switch course” again and again.

Countries that have stuck to the hard path, like China, are now gearing up to pre-empt and nip a second wave:

“China on Thursday unveiled a new trial protocol warranting re-testing of the recovered coronavirus patients besides intensifying the screening of asymptomatic cases as concerns grew over the second wave of virus infections in the country.”

All of which is even more reason India should watch China and Japan closely. Not just to watch and learn as I have been advocating for some time. But also, so we can mentally prepare ourselves for a long drawn battle, with second waves and who knows what else.