Silicon Models
There was a time when this was how
science was done, wrote
Jon Turney:
“Find a plausible theory for how some
bits of the world behave, make predictions, test them experimentally.”
But now?
“All the action is in silicon — not in
the world, or even the lab.”
‘Silicon’ as in algorithms, data mining
and computer simulations.
Kevin Kelly noticed this trend in his 2008
article where he pointed out that Google
Translate uses “zillions of datapoints which in aggregate link "this
to that" from one language to another”. What does that technique for
understanding, he wondered?
“If you can learn how to spell without
knowing anything about the rules or grammar of spelling, and if you can learn
how to translate languages without having any theory or concepts about grammar
of the languages you are translating, then what else can you learn without
having a theory?”
George Box famously said, “All models are
wrong, but some are useful.” Box’s comment became all the more relevant in the
silicon modeled world because, as Turney wrote:
“Computer models are different. They’re
often more complex, always more abstract and, crucially, they’re dynamic. It is the dynamics that call
for the computation...Just turn your model, whatever it is, into a system of
equations, let the computer solve them over a given period, and, voila, you
have a simulation.”
Computer models are now rampantly used.
Just check out this point:
“The Nobel-anointed discovery of the
Higgs boson depends on a constantly accumulating computer analysis of zillions
of particle collisions, focusing the probability that the expected signature of
the Higgs has actually been observed.”
This abundant use of computer models in
today’s world makes it all the more critical that we keep reminding ourselves
of the “known unknowns” that lie within those models. Turney lists climate
change and economics as two fields that need to be particularly aware of the
“known unknowns”, well, because the stakes are so high. And while he feels that
climate change experts do seem to be (somewhat) aware of the risks in their
models, I feel economists behave more like what John Kay said:
“The stupidity and ignorance lies in the
minds of the people who, when they see a world that fails to correspond to the
models they use, blame the world rather than their model.”
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