Demographics and its Impact

Demographics refers to the characteristics of a population. Like age or income or education or a combination of some attributes. Depending on the context, it could refer to different attributes.

Age has become one of the most important demographic parameter when evaluating future economic prospects of countries. Simply put, one looks at the age distribution of the population. And if the number of people in the working age is going to shrink in a country, it’s very likely that the country will get poorer in the long run. Strangely, that is especially true for developed countries. Why? Because their increasingly aged population will draw more and more on their healthcare and pension facilities even as the younger set contributing to that kitty decreases.

Today, one in five Japanese and Europeans are over age 65. As per UN estimates, in 2050, that ratio will be one in three. That would inevitably stress their healthcare and pension systems further, require a raise in retirement age and higher taxes on those still working.

China’s working population would rise for another 15 years after which it would start declining and end up at 100 million lesser than today. Mostly because of its one-child policy.

The US, strangely (for a developed country), will increase its working-age population by 35 million till 2050 due to a higher birth rate compared to Japan and Europe as well as its openness to immigrants.

And India? Our working age population will grow by 300 million by 2050. So we have far more time to figure out how to deal with the demographic change eventually. We could figure it ourselves or by learning from what the Europeans, Japanese and Chinese did in the meantime. Unlike the rest, our real “problem” for the next 40 years is about creating jobs for all those people.

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